séminaire GREThA-Bordeaux Développement
Jeanne Métivier (GREThA)
jeudi 11 octobre
GREThA salle F340
"What are the costs of an inoperative WTO's dispute settlement procedure? A case study on steel and aluminium"
The WTO's dispute settlement procedure risks to become inoperative by 2020 if the US continues to block the appointment of new members to the appellate body of the dispute settlement procedure; body in charge of settling appealed trade disputes. What could be the costs of an inoperative WTO dispute settlement procedure for WTO members? In this paper, we focus on a recent trade dispute over additional import duties imposed by the US on certain steel articles in order to quantify the impact of the WTO's dispute settlement procedure on WTO members' trade flows. In particular, we use a gravity model to estimate the trade elasticity of affected steel products to tariffs. We then use those estimates to forecast exports of affected steel products from WTO members to the US. We find that exports of affected steel products from WTO members to the US would increase by 86 % if disputes were solved in 2019, compared to a situation in which disputes were not solved. This loss would increase each year, as long as disputes are left unsolved. The forty-four WTO members included in the analysis would lose 142, 294, 457 and 631 million constant 2010 USD in exports of disputed articles if disputes are solved in the 5, 10, 15 and 20 years following their initiations. A fast resolution of the disputes is thus advisable and WTO members should be deeply concerned by the smooth operation and efficiency of the WTO's dispute settlement procedure.